GOLDEN,
Colo. — China is stepping up and out in the world of space exploration.
Space
officials in that country are readying the Shenzhou 7
spacecraft for an October sendoff, one that will carry a trio of their "taikonauts"
into Earth orbit. The mission not only promises to strengthen China's human
space travel agenda, but also provides a glimpse into actions to be undertaken
in the future.
China has
initiated a step-by-step approach in flying their taikonauts: The single-person Shenzhou 5 flight
in 2003 of 14 orbits; the two-person voyage of Shenzhou 6 in 2005 lasting 5
days; and soon to head skyward, a threesome of space travelers. And on this
flight, one of those space travelers is to carry out China's
first spacewalk, also known as extravehicular activity, or EVA for short.
In some
ways, the upcoming mission spotlights the hop, skip, and jump abilities of
China in comparison to U.S. space history.
For the U.S.,
the Mercury series of single-seat flights led to the two-person missions of
Gemini spacecraft, followed by sojourns of the Apollo three-person crew
capsule. More to the point, in the U.S., the first human-carrying orbital
flight of Mercury was in 1962; Gemini in 1965; and Apollo in 1968.
So is there
a true measure of growth, albeit somewhat skewed given the driving nature of
the Soviet Union versus the U.S. "Moon race"?
Case in
point: If this next mission for China is successful in attaining orbit, that
country will have taken something like a year less time to move from
single-seat orbital flight to Apollo three-seat space travel - contrasted to
U.S. human spaceflight progress in Earth orbit.
Learning
curve
On one
hand, China's
steadfast evolution in human space treks is laudable. On the other, given
that status card, leading spaceflight aficionados seem to sense different
take-home messages.
"Implications, as far as I can
see...few, if any," said Joan Johnson-Freese, an analyst of China's space policy and Chair of the
National Security Decision-Making Department at the U.S. Naval War College in
Newport, R.I.
Johnson-Freese
told SPACE.com that the U.S. Mercury program of the 1960s was
spearheading research just to see if humans could swallow in space...or how the
human psyche would react once in Earth orbit. There were lots of medical
questions, she noted.
NASA's
Project Mercury was quickly followed by a salvo of 10 human-carrying Gemini
flights from March 1965 to November 1966. All-in-all, piloted Mercury and
Gemini orbital outings tally up to 14 flights in five years, Johnson-Freese
observed — and don't forget those two earlier and piloted suborbital Mercury
missions.
"Technology development was
incremental because it was all new, but consistent," Johnson-Freese stressed.
"The
Chinese will have three flights with a successful mission next fall. They have been
able to benefit from lots of lessons learned from both the Americans and the
Russians. That is not to downplay the difficulty of the technology or the
achievements of the Chinese...they just have the luxury of starting much higher
on the learning curve," she concluded.
Pow...pow...pow
Given the
years of mastering human space travel, is China's blossoming to-do list in
order to operate in Earth orbit worth spotlighting?
"Yes,
absolutely...it is worth flagging," said Dean Cheng, an Asian affairs specialist at the U.S.-based
Center for Naval Analysis in Alexandria, Virginia.
"Now, the
flip side to that, of course, is that it has also been done before. So it's not
like they need to engineer everything from scratch," Cheng told SPACE.com,
adding that China can depend on designs similar to those proven to work by the
U.S. and former Russians. "But, yes, it is nonetheless impressive."
Cheng
points out, however: "The main difference ...there were more Mercury and Gemini
flights in the intervening period. What is interesting about the Chinese effort
is that they are doing it with so few flights. Four unmanned flights...then
pow-pow- pow...one-man, two-man, three-man/EVA."
Cheng also
underscored the built-in danger to nations that ramp up human spaceflight
expertise. Both the U.S. and the Soviet Union lost people during their
respective run-ups.
"You have
to wonder if the Chinese can sustain a perfect space record," he added. "Obviously,
one hope's that they can."
Take-away
knowledge
In terms of
where China is really headed in human spaceflight, crystal ball gazing is not easy.
Stacking up
their one-two-three punch in the field of human spaceflight against U.S. space
program heritage doesn't quite match up, said Roger Launius, senior curator for
the Division of Space History at the Smithsonian Institution's National Air and
Space Museum in Washington, D.C.
"Learning
what China needs to know about conducting a lunar trip, probably a circumlunar
trip, on three missions seems a bit thin to me," Launius told SPACE.com.
While
Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo programs might have been exceptionally cautious — and thus took more time and a greater number of missions than the Chinese
effort — the knowledge return from the American programs versus China's three
flights cannot be anywhere near each other, Launius explained.
"Let's take
the Gemini program," Launius said. "A central reason for it was to perfect
techniques for rendezvous and docking, EVA, and long duration flight. Assuming
that these same skills will be required in a Chinese moon program, and I
believe they will, where will the knowledge and experience for them come from
in these three missions?"
Launius
said that the Gemini flights swamp China in terms of demonstrated skills. The
country has yet to rack up the experience base of spacewalking, rendezvous and
docking that is now standard in the U.S. and Russia, he added.
"A core
question, it seems to me, is this: "Will ground simulation be able to
compensate for the lack of orbital experience?" Launius said. "Perhaps, but I'm
not sure."
More
acclaim than deserved?
Stepping
back and taking a larger look at where China's human space program is headed,
Launius observed: "Personally, I think the Chinese program is moving forward at
a modest pace and is getting a lot of mileage out of the fact that it is a
secret effort that forces us to speculate about it. It is receiving among the
space community more acclaim than I think it deserves."
Launius
said that there's enough in China's statements on future manned moon missions to
fuel Western speculation that the country has a vast program, immensely
capable, and seeking to at least equal the Americans in a Moon program of its
own.
"There is
no official Chinese evidence to support the concept of a Chinese human moon
program, despite the wishes of some inside the Chinese space program who would
love to do it. Occasionally, someone will say something about this to Western
media but official documents available do not say anything about such a
program," Launius said.
There are
those in the U.S. space community that would like to see China hell-bent on sending
taikonauts onto the moon's surface, Launius said, because they believe it would
spark a new space race. "I'm not sure that would be the outcome of these
Chinese efforts...but I also see no evidence for serious Chinese efforts in that
direction," he added.
Picking
up speed
Meanwhile,
preparations to launch Shenzhou 7 are picking up speed in China.
According
to Chinese news services, the spacecraft has undergone modifications to accommodate an
airlock. A spacewalking-qualified space suit has been okayed for flight.
There have been extensive checkouts of the craft to fulfill its mission
objectives.
What day
the three-person crew takes off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on its
Long March booster in October is yet to be announced. Earlier, there has been
comment about broadcasting the spacewalk live on television.
Moreover, the
spacewalk mission — and the duties to be performed during the EVA — has been
deemed as crucial for China to make possible a space laboratory or station in
Earth orbit.
Earlier
this month, it was noted that six taikonauts had been selected for the upcoming
mission from 14 candidates — a crowd that included Yang Liwei, China's
first space explorer who flew solo on Shenzhou 5. For Shenzhou 7, three
will fly the actual mission with the others tagged as substitutes.
Also,
Yuanwang 6, an ocean-going tracking ship, has been delivered for service in
Shanghai to participate in the Shenzhou 7 flight and to assist in the slated
spacewalk. It joins sister ship, Yuanwang 5, to take part in maritime space
surveying and mission controlling operations.
Qi Faren,
academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and researcher of China
Spaceflight Technology Research Institute — credited as chief designer of
China's first five Shenzhou spaceships and chief consultant for Shenzhou 6 and
Shenzhou 7 - has been quoted as saying that plans are already underway for
Shenzhou 8 and Shenzhou 9. He added that "the intervals between each launch
will become shorter."
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