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Study Raises Number of Dangerous Asteroids By Lee Siegel Science Writer posted: 02:01 pm ET 22 June 2000
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asteroid_impacts_000622 A new study estimates 900 large asteroids cruise orbital "superhighways" where they someday might strike Earth, causing widespread death and destruction. Yet so far, astronomers have found only 40 percent of the big space rocks, each at least 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) wide. The new calculation by U.S. and French scientists -- published in the June 23 issue of the journal Science -- is almost 30-percent larger than an estimate of 700 near-Earth asteroids outlined in January in the journal Nature.  "The fewer large ones there are to keep an eye on, the more comforting it is."  But both those recent calculations are well below earlier estimates Earth might be threatened by 1,500 to 2,000 kilometer-sized asteroids in orbits that cross or approach Earth's path around the sun.

A small asteroid just 80 feet (24 meters) across created Meteor Crater in Arizona 20,000 to 50,000 years ago.
"The fewer large ones there are to keep an eye on, the more comforting it is," said Don Yeomans, who manages NASA's near-Earth object program at Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. Cornell University planetary scientist William Bottke Jr., who led the new study, said preliminary calculations derived from the research suggest Earth may get smacked by a kilometer-sized asteroid once every 500,000 to 1 million years. That's less than the once every 100,000 to 300,000 years cited by other scientists and based on the rate of impact cratering on the moon. Next page: Does one have our name on it?
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